Wisconsin Outdoors

Phenology: Nature's Calendar

Phenology is timing nature by events instead of dates: the first robin, hepatica in bloom, lilac in early bloom. Aldo Leopold and his daughter Nina Leopold Bradley kept 61 years of spring records at the shack in Sauk County, showing spring arriving about a week earlier on average, geese a month earlier, and the bluebird not at all. Plus the gardener's version (corn when oak leaves reach a squirrel's ear, crabgrass when lilacs open), and how to keep your own calendar.

  • 5 min
  • 6 steps
  • 4 questions
  • Lesson 14 of 49

In this lesson

  1. What phenology is
  2. The shack records
  3. The gardener’s calendar
  4. Keep your own
  5. Try it

The calendar says spring starts March 20. The woods don’t care. Some years the hepatica blooms in late March; some years there’s still snow in the woods in mid-April. Phenology keeps time by the events themselves, and over enough years those records show how the seasons are changing.

What phenology is

Phenology is the study of the timing of natural events in relation to weather and season: when migratory birds return, when wildflowers and shrubs bloom, when insects emerge, when lakes freeze and thaw 1. Wisconsin has a long tradition of it. Increase Lapham and Aldo Leopold kept detailed records, and the Wisconsin Phenological Society, founded in 1961, had volunteers across the state watching common lilacs, the emergence of the promethea silkmoth, and lake ice 1.

A forest floor carpeted with white trillium flowers between gray tree trunks.
Large white trilliums blooming on a forest floor. Spring wildflowers like these bloom before the trees leaf out and shade them. Credit: Ryan Hodnett · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source

Quick check

What is phenology?

The shack records

Aldo Leopold kept notes on spring events at his worn-out farm and shack in Fairfield Township, Sauk County, from 1936 to 1947. After his death there was a gap, and then his daughter Nina Leopold Bradley kept the same kind of records at the same farm from 1976 to 1998: 61 years in all, covering 74 events, mostly bird arrivals and first blooms 2.

In 1999 she and her colleagues analyzed the 55 spring events with enough years of data. On average, they came 0.12 day earlier per year, about a week over the record 2. But the average hides a lot:

Event Average date Change over 61 years
Cardinal first song Feb 15 ~22 days earlier
Canada geese arrive Mar 9 ~29 days earlier
Bluebird arrives Mar 14 no change
Robin arrives Mar 15 ~10 days earlier
Woodcock first “peent” Mar 21 ~10 days earlier
Phoebe arrives Mar 29 ~18 days earlier
Hepatica first bloom Apr 11 ~10 days earlier
House wren arrives Apr 26 ~18 days earlier
A bar chart of spring events at the Leopold farm with average dates and how many days earlier each came by the end of the 61-year record: cardinal first song, February 15, 22 days; Canada geese arrival, March 9, 29 days; bluebird arrival, March 14, no change; robin, March 15, 10 days; red-winged blackbird, March 15, 10 days; woodcock first peent, March 21, 10 days; phoebe, March 29, 18 days; hepatica first bloom, April 11, 10 days; house wren, April 26, 18 days. Across all 55 events, 0.12 day earlier per year, about 7 days over 61 years. Records by Aldo Leopold 1936 to 1947 and Nina Leopold Bradley 1976 to 1998 at the same farm in Fairfield Township, Sauk County.
Spring arrives about a week earlier than in Leopold's day, unevenly. Credit: StudyCorner diagram after Bradley et al., PNAS 1999 · CC BY 4.0 · Source

Events that respond to local temperature (resident cardinals starting to sing, geese following the open water north, flowers blooming) moved earlier. Some didn’t move at all, as you’d expect for events triggered by day length or other cues that don’t change with the weather 2. That mismatch is part of what makes phenology important: a bird that times its return by day length can arrive to find the insects it feeds its young already past their peak.

Aldo Leopold, Phenology, and Climate Change with Dr. Stan Temple What the shack records show, from the Aldo Leopold Foundation. Credit: Aldo Leopold Foundation · YouTube standard license · 57:52 · Source

Playback is optional. If the player is unavailable, open the video at its source.

Quick check

Over 61 years of records at the Leopold farm, how much earlier did spring events come on average?

Quick check

Why might some events, like the bluebird’s return, not shift with warming?

The gardener’s calendar

Plants add up the season’s warmth better than any single date, which makes them good indicators 1:

  • “Plant corn when oak leaves are the size of a squirrel’s ear.” By then the soil is warm enough for corn and other warm-season seeds to germinate without rotting.
  • Crabgrass germinates once the soil 4 inches down holds at 55 °F, roughly when the common lilac is in early bloom. That’s the window for a pre-emergent treatment, if you use one.
  • Eastern tent caterpillar eggs hatch at bud break on flowering crabapple and wild plum, the best time to deal with them.
  • Allergy season follows the same logic: tree pollen in May, grass in June, ragweed in August, all shifting with a warm or cold spring.

Quick check

The old rule ‘plant corn when oak leaves are the size of a squirrel’s ear’ works because…

Keep your own

A phenology record needs nothing but a notebook and repetition. Pick a dozen things you’ll see every year: first red-winged blackbird, first spring peeper calling, first hepatica, lilac first bloom, first morel, first frost, ice-out on the nearest lake. Write the date each year. After a few years you’ll have your own calendar, and after many you’ll have the kind of record the Leopolds left. The USA National Phenology Network takes volunteer observations if you want yours to count toward the bigger picture 1.

Try it

Start a list this week with fall events: first frost, peak color on a particular maple, the last hummingbird, first juncos at the feeder. Put the notebook somewhere you’ll see it every day, and next March, start the spring list.

Lesson complete

Nice work.

1day streak
0/1today's goal
–correct

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Sources for this lesson
  1. 1
    Phenology and Gardening. University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin Master Gardener (Susan Mahr). 2013. verifiedPhenology is the timing of natural events in relation to weather. Increase Lapham and Aldo Leopold kept Wisconsin records; the Wisconsin Phenological Society formed in 1961 (lilac observations, promethea moth emergence, lake freeze and thaw). Indicators: 'plant corn when oak leaves are the size of a squirrel's ear' (soil warm enough); crabgrass germinates when 4-inch soil stabilizes at 55 F, roughly when common lilac is in early bloom; eastern tent caterpillar egg hatch coincides with bud break on crabapple and wild plum. Tree pollen in May, grasses June, ragweed August. USA National Phenology Network takes observations.
  2. 2
    Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Bradley, Leopold, Ross, Huffaker). 1999. verifiedSpring records at the Leopold farm in Fairfield Township, Sauk County: Aldo Leopold 1936-1947, Nina Leopold Bradley 1976-1998; 74 phenophases, 55 analyzed; mean regression -0.12 day per year. Examples (avg date, slope days/yr): cardinal first song Feb 15, -0.365; Canada geese arrival Mar 9, -0.476; bluebird Mar 14, +0.024 (no change); red-winged blackbird Mar 15, -0.166; robin Mar 15, -0.159; woodcock first peent Mar 21, -0.156; phoebe Mar 29, -0.299; hepatica bloom Apr 11, -0.170; house wren Apr 26, -0.293. Some phenophases didn't shift, as expected for those regulated by photoperiod.